Inside the Fifth National Climate Assessment, Southwest Chapter

Drs. Emile Elias and Dave White discuss the Southwest chapter of the 5th National Climate Assessment (NCA5). They share what it was like to be lead authors of the Southwest chapter, what’s new in this assessment, how it’s being shared, some major findings, and other highlights. We wrap up this episode with what each of them found encouraging or hopeful from the assessment.

Relevant links:

Read the 5th National Climate Assessment (NCA5)

Webinars and podcasts on the NCA5

NCA5 Atlas

“Startlement”, a poem by Poet Laureate Ada Limón for NCA5

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Come Rain or Shine affiliate links:
DOI Southwest CASC: https://www.swcasc.arizona.edu/ 
USDA Southwest Climate Hub: https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/southwest 
Sustainable Southwest Beef Project (NIFA Grant #2019-69012-29853): https://southwestbeef.org/  

Transcript

Emile Elias: Welcome to Come Rain or Shine, podcast of the USDA Southwest Climate Hub 

Sarah LeRoy: and the DOI Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center for Southwest CASC operated by the USGS. I'm Sarah LeRoy, Research Coordinator for the Southwest CASC. 

Emile Elias: And I'm Emile Elias, Director of the Southwest Climate Hub. Here we highlight stories to share the most recent advances in climate science, weather, and climate adaptation and innovative practices to support resilient landscapes and communities.

Sarah LeRoy: We believe that sharing some of the most innovative, forward thinking, and creative climate science and adaptation will strengthen our collective ability to respond to even the most challenging impacts of climate change in one of the hottest and driest regions of the world.

The contents of this podcast are for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as endorsement for any of the products, technologies, or strategies discussed.

The National Climate Assessment, or NCA, gathers hundreds of experts from across the country to review the latest science on climate change trends, impacts, and solutions for the U. S. Mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, a new assessment is created and presented to Congress and the President about every four years. The latest assessment is the Fifth Assessment Report and was released in November of 2023. We thought it would be nice to start off the new year with a discussion of this preeminent climate assessment with two lead authors of the Southwest Chapter.

Dave White is Director of the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation at Arizona State University and is lead author of the Southwest Chapter. The other lead author I'll be talking with today is my podcast co host, Emile Elias. Director of the USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Federal Coordinating Lead of the Southwest Chapter.

Welcome to you both. Emile, I bet it's a bit strange being on the other side of the podcast today, but I'm wondering if you could start us off just by telling us a little bit about what's different or new in this fifth assessment compared to the previous assessments. Or does the format stay the same for every assessment?

Emile Elias: Yeah, thanks Sarah. It is interesting to be on this side of the microphone. Thanks for the introduction. I will say yes, I served as the coordinating lead author of this assessment. The lead author really does a huge amount of work and heavy lifting, so I wanted to acknowledge Dave and all of the great work that he did.

But yes, in some ways the format does stay the same through time, and in other ways it changes. So there have been some consistent pieces, and then some new parts. One of the big changes that is really interesting in the Fifth National Climate Assessment is the use of different creative elements. And, and we'll probably talk about that a little bit later, but just A little mention of the poetry and the art by climate project and some of those elements.

However, something that stayed the same is that there are national level topics in this national climate assessment, such as water, agriculture. There are regional chapters for regions across the country, and then there are chapters related to response actions. So that's, that's the same. The 2nd and 3rd chapters of this 5th National Climate Assessment are focused on the main physical science, so climate trends and earth system processes.

And then some of the newer things are two new chapters, one on economics and one on social systems and justice. Something else that's new is focus features. So there's five of those, one on compound extreme events, one on western wildfires. One that focuses on COVID 19 and climate change, a fourth new focus feature on supply chains, and then a fifth on blue carbon.

So those are some of the new elements. Something else that's new that that I'm really excited about is the atlas. The National Climate Assessment Atlas. It's an online interactive tool that allows people to access and use downscaled temperature and precipitation data. And then there are also some scientific advancements in the NCA5 that I think we'll probably talk about as we move forward.

Sarah LeRoy: Excellent, thank you. It sounds like there's a lot of new and, you know, improved and some great things with this new fifth assessment especially in accessibility. And like you mentioned, Emile we'll talk a little bit later about the artwork piece of it, which I think is just great. So Dave, I wanted to ask you, you served as an author on the fourth National Climate Assessment, but this is your first time being a chapter lead.

So what was that experience like leading, leading a chapter? 

Dave White: Yes so first of all, thank you, Sarah, for hosting this conversation, and it's wonderful to be here with you and, and with Emile, and I'm just really delighted that we are now, after two and a half years of dedicated work by more than 500 contributors, we're able to share the Fifth National Climate Assessment, and And while we are now at the point where we've released the assessment, and so in some ways, we've reached an important milestone, but in other ways, the work is now just beginning, because the entire point of the assessment is to provide this authoritative, consensus based synthesis of our understanding of climate risks and impacts.

As well as adaptation pathways and actions, and for that information to be useful and usable for a variety of different communities at the federal, state, and local level, for private sector, public, and non profit organizations, to be able to implement climate action in ways that increase national resilience and reduce risk, and lead to a more equitable and just society.

So I'm just delighted that we're at this point, that we've released the assessment and we can begin this process of engagement. So I was able to serve in the fourth National Climate Assessment on what was Chapter 17 on complex systems, where we were investigating the interrelationships between sectors like water, energy, and agriculture, and how different risks Can compound or cascade from one sector to another.

And importantly, what types of adaptation strategies and actions can help build resilience in one sector that will provide co benefits to other sectors. So that was a really exciting experience. That was a new chapter in the fourth assessment. So I had the chance to contribute to a new chapter in the fourth assessment.

For the fifth National Climate Assessment, I was able to Take the baton from our colleague Gregg Garfin from the University of Arizona, who had been the lead author on the Southwest for the third and fourth assessment. And it was such a privilege to be able to pick up this work following the really excellent work that Greg and team had done, because that sets such an important foundation.

Because each assessment builds upon the work done by the prior team. And I was delighted to be able to work closely with Emile, as well as Kathryn Thomas, as our leadership team, and then select an incredibly diverse team for our co authors that included representatives from the different states in our region, people of different disciplinary backgrounds, People from different career stages and people who represent a diversity of perspectives in terms of the individual people that were contributing to the chapter and we can talk a little bit later about how we selected those folks.

And the, the difference between contributing to the chapter and leading the chapter, the primary differences is, you know, you are the responsible party for meeting all of the critical deadlines, for ensuring the ultimate quality of the product that you're delivering. And that just means that The responsibility is higher, but also the opportunity is higher, because that means that I got to engage with every single one of the co authors.

I got to engage with also other lead authors on other chapters, and got to engage with the leadership team from the U. S. Global Change Research Program and the National Climate Assessment Leadership Team, including Director Allison Crimmins and her amazing group of people who shepherded this process over the last several years.

So it was really a privilege to be able to be in that leadership position for the chapter. And, you know, one thing that I learned this time that I'll, I'll change if I do this again, is to make sure that I hire a graduate research assistant to deal with reference citations. If I never see another reference citation formatting challenge again, I'll, I'll be happy.

Sarah LeRoy: Thanks, Dave, I can relate to that because I I worked on the, one of the chapters of the third National Climate Assessment on the final editing, and those references take a lot of time in the back and forth. It's It's a lot. And I appreciate you sharing about those different perspectives from being an author to being a lead author and responsible for everything.

And and I also appreciate the perspective of, you know, sometimes it's like you finish a publication and you're done. Your hand, you know, it's, it's done. So it's nice to hear that, like, really, this is just the beginning. You're working now towards the next assessment as well as. You know participating in outreach and, and getting the word out about the assessment as well.

Speaking of which, Emile, I wanted to ask you about audiences. So, you know, who is the target audience for the assessment? And then thinking about, we mentioned there's this new art piece involved. Does that mean that, you know, are the assessment leads trying to reach a more public audience by bringing in the art piece than in past years?

Emile Elias: Yeah, that's a great question. And before I respond to that. I just want to say again, thanks to Dave for wrangling and leading and taking the responsibility for this. I'm really always impressed and heartened by all of the people who are willing to add this to a very heavy workload that they already have because most of, most everybody that contributed to this, it was just extra in and they did it outside of their regular jobs and their regular work.

So I'm really I'm really grateful for all of the people that contributed and talking about audiences. So, so the assessment itself, and this was mentioned earlier, was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990. And the intent was to assist the nation and the world in understanding, assessing, predicting, and responding to climate change, to global change.

And so that's the audience for this, right? This is a very, everyone is really the audience for this report. At the same time, making that report accessible to everyone and available to everyone has been an intent from the very beginning. And I think we're getting better at it. For example, this time around, the entire report will be translated into Spanish, which, especially for our region, we're really grateful and thankful for that.

And there are many, many people that are involved in, at a lot of different levels. For example, one of the first things that happens is that, There is a public call for scientific and technical inputs to the assessment. So we rely on, on the literature that is available and, and people are asked to share their literature.

Then of course, you mentioned the Art by Climate effort. So that's the first ever call for visual art. So really reaching out to, to the artist community and asking them to participate in a different way in the National Climate Assessment. On this time around, there were also tribal consultations and sort of developing some, some guidance on working with tribes and, and sharing that information.

And so So the report is for everyone and we are growing in how we include everyone in being part of publication of the report.

Sarah LeRoy: Perfect. Thanks, Emile. Dave, why don't we get into a little bit of the science of the Southwest chapter. So would you you know, what were some of the major findings in that chapter that you could share with us?

Dave White: Certainly. So the scientific assessment of the literature that is the basis of The National Climate Assessment really demonstrates a number of key findings that we highlight in the Southwest Chapter. We, we present five key findings and what's important is for each of the key findings that we present in the Southwest Chapter, we also illustrate the important adaptation actions and mitigation actions that are taking place that demonstrate that there are adaptations and mitigations and climate actions happening in every community across the United States and in every region of the United States and in and throughout the Southwest. Throughout the Southwest region.

So it's really not only about those risks and impacts, but also how the united states is taking action on climate change. And so that's an important part. And what was also, I think something that was perhaps unique in the way that we conducted our business for the Southwest is that we had a commitment to addressing a series of cross cutting themes for each of our key messages. So for each of the five key areas where we focused, we, we talked not only about the content of that scientific evidence based, but we also addressed issues having to do with how impacts are affecting frontline and overburdened communities and addressing issues around climate equity. We committed to addressing issues of economics, of infrastructure, throughout all of these different areas.

So, in our, in our five messages, at a high level, we talk about climate impacts on drought and water resources. Climate risk and impacts to the coast and ocean, impacts to food and fiber production in the region, how climate change is shaping human health and demographics, and how climate change is altering wildfire patterns throughout the region.

So in each of section of our chapter we demonstrate the best available scientific understanding of climate impacts and risks as well as adaptation actions on each of those. There were a few, I think, novel and interesting findings that emerged from this assessment. Looking at how drought and increasing aridity are threatening water resources in our region.

We were able to identify scientific evidence that shows the important effect of temperature and rising temperatures on the dynamics of the water cycle and science that we review in that section illustrates how, for instance, from the period of around 1913 to 2017, the research has documented approximately 9. 3 percent reduction in surface water flows in the Colorado River for each one degree Celsius increase in warming. And the reason I point this out is, first of all, it helps us to understand the dynamics about how temperatures are really driving much of the change that we're seeing in our particularly surface water supplies, but also how much it illustrates the fact that every 10th of a degree matters.

Every tenth of a degree of climate warming that is avoided means protection of surface water in our region. And that's one thing that connects our regional experience of global climate change to the global policy dialogue. For example, as The UN Convention on Climate Change, COP 28 opens today and, and is opening right now in Dubai. Those global policy dialogues and the effectiveness of the global policy community in, in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting or mitigating warming globally that directly affects and will benefit the Southwest region, including Arizona, in reducing the impact on our water resources.

Sarah LeRoy: Thanks, Dave. That was great. Emile, I wanted to ask you about the chapter leads and team members and how those people are chosen for each of the chapters, but also I know there's a rigorous review process for the assessment, so maybe you could talk about that review process as well and how that works.

Emile Elias: Absolutely, and Dave mentioned this a little bit earlier in terms of our intent to make sure that the chapter authors themselves are you know, representing the diverse geography of the assessment, representing diverse backgrounds in terms of their scientific expertise, and also representing kind of a wide range of, you know, authorship and representing a lot of different interests. So, the National Climate Assessment development usually is a four year process. It is overseen by a federal steering committee, and that committee is comprised of representatives from the 14 different agencies, the member agencies of the U. S. Global Change Research Program. And there are many rounds of review and public engagement.

The first thing that happens is the USGCRP releases a draft report prospectus for public comment, along with a call for nominations for chapter leadership. Authorship, Technical Contributors, and also those Scientific Inputs I mentioned earlier. That committee then selects the Coordinating Lead Authors, and so that's the role that I was fortunate to play this time around.

And they do this you know, the CLA's or Coordinating Lead Authors are federal employees, and they assemble a team of those CLA's and assign chapters. Taking into account the author's experience and expertise and also the balance of the group, making sure that all the agencies are represented. And then the coordinating lead authors are provided with a list of potential chapter leadership.

And so that's from the public call and, and past experience as well. And so the, one of the major things that the coordinating lead author does with I did this with the agency contributing author, ACL Kathryn thomas from the USGS, was to select the chapter lead. And, and, and propose a chapter lead for the chapter and hope that that person agrees to participate with them.

And so, so that was a really a big part of the process for me and for Kathryn. And we, I had not worked with Dave before, before this. And so that was going on faith a little bit and also really wanting to bring his expertise into the group. And also for me, it seems like broadening the authorship team beyond my own sphere was important.

And so I wanted to kind of bring up, work with someone new, bring in those new connections that he would have. And so that, that fortunately, Dave agreed to serve as the, the chapter lead for our chapter. And then from there, different chapters do it differently. I think for some, for some chapters, the, the lead author selects all of the, the authors on the team.

For us, Dave was very collaborative and we all worked together to assemble a really long list of, of potential authors. And we were really lucky that we were able to develop such a diverse team to work on the assessment. In terms of your second part of your question, and that was around review. So, the NCA 5 went through multiple rounds of extensive agency review.

Three opportunities for public comment and external peer review conducted by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. So, there were many phases of review over this two and a half year arc from the beginning of selecting the coordinating lead author all the way until now when it was released to the public earlier this month.

I don't know if Dave wanted to add anything to that process.

Dave White: Emile, I would just add that that was, I think, through those different mechanisms that you mentioned we developed a list, I think, I recall, more than 100, 125 potential authors to be part of the assessment and I really enjoyed that process because we were able to learn about the work that that was available, all the new science and scientists, and, and through those mechanisms, we were able to diversify that pool, and while only a smaller group of us ended up being the co authors on the report, the work of all of those others ended up being part of the assessment because that part, that that process of surveying all of the contemporary work going on led us to identifying new contributors and new authors and new science to bring into the report.

Sarah LeRoy: Well, thank you both for describing that process, and I am absolutely amazed that you were able to do all of that in two and a half years. And, you know, three reviews, an external review, public review, plus all the, and then actually writing it. You know, that's, that's a lot. So I commend you both, and all of the authors of NCA5.

Dave, thinking back to the key findings of the Southwest chapter, I'm curious, how do you address uncertainties and error bars in the data without undermining the urgency of the message that we're trying to deliver. 

Dave White: That's an excellent question, and just to close the loop on this last point we would be remiss unless we called out Chris Avery, the Chief of Staff, to Director Crimmins in the National Climate Assessment, because Chris and his team, and for us that meant Fred Lipschultz, who was our point of contact from the U. S. Global Change Research Program. And Chris and Fred, working with our team, were the ones that made sure that every critical deadline was met. This process, as you say, this multi year process, when the NCA was released on November 14th, I was In Washington, had the privilege to be part of the release, talked with Chris, and he said we met, and he was not kidding, to the day, to the day, the target that was in the spreadsheet that they developed when we launched the NCA5 process. 

So, talk about, you know, running the trains on time that, that's an impressive accomplishment. 

One thing that helps us to do that are the resources that are provided by USGCRP to address exactly these types of issues. So we rely on calibrated language for our confidence assessments and for our likelihood assessments.

And so the NCA 5 uses very specific language that's commonly understood among all of the authors and contributors that is derived, the confidence language is derived from work that is conducted as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and their fifth assessment report. So we use a series of confidence levels that reflect the quantity, the quality and the degree of agreement across the evidence base that underpins any particular assessment finding.

And so you'll notice if you read the report and look at our chapter, for example, for each of the key messages, for each finding in the key message, you will see stated a level of confidence. And for instance, when we say we have very high confidence in a scientific finding, that means that there is strong evidence through established theory, multiple convergent sources, well documented evidence, and accepted methods, and high scientific consensus. If we, for example, note that we have only medium confidence in a finding, that means that there is suggestive evidence. 

There are a few sources, there's some limited consistency, methods may be emerging to, to to identify that finding, and there might be still some competing schools of thought within the scientific community about that.

So, the important thing here is that the confidence level in our assessments is entirely transparent. And so, for each finding where we express a level of confidence we note that and then in the report we also have a section at the end of the chapter called traceable accounts. And in the traceable accounts section, when we say we have high confidence, we then document how we came to that conclusion and point to the specific scientific evidence that shows that the theory is established, that there's multiple convergent sources, that there's documentation etc. So while it is critically important that we characterize the uncertainty in the scientific evidence base, it should also be known that each of the decisions that we were making is fully traceable and trackable and transparent.

And that's a hallmark of the type of work that's done through the NCA. We did the same thing when we were addressing the likelihood. So when we talk about something being very likely, that means that we were able to have a numeric probability of that outcome to say very likely translates into a 90 to 100 percent chance that that that that statement will be realized within the time period in which the, the statement is couched.

And so if we say we anticipate for example, that temperatures will reach a certain threshold by a certain year, and we give that probability that confidence assessment and that likelihood, then the reader can, can know exactly what that means. So, the most important thing for me in driving public confidence in these findings is the transparency and the traceability in, in what we say.

Sarah LeRoy: Great, thanks Dave. Emile, I wanted to go back to this discussion of the artwork that is in this assessment, because I especially love the addition of this creative communication for this assessment. And so the artwork is just amazing. And I highly, highly recommend that our listeners check it out. And some of the artists are even children.

So Emile, could you talk about this piece just a little bit more? You know, why did they decide to include an art component this time? And what was the process for finding artists and making those final selections? 

Emile Elias: Yeah, Sarah, it's such a great new element of the Fifth National Climate Assessment, and that actually came from Director Crimmins.

So, there are many new creative elements that weren't included in the past. There are podcasts that you can find online and we'll put links in the episode notes. There was a poem written specifically for the National Climate Assessment by the 24th Poet Laureate of the United States, Ada Limon, and we'll put a link to that as well. And then what you're talking about is this Art by Climate gallery. And so they used a sort of similar process that's used in other elements of the National Climate Assessment, where a committee that was representing the different agencies contributing to the National Climate Assessment was pulled together to talk about and think about how to do a public call for art for a National Climate Assessment.

This is the first time ever that this was done. And so, then they launched or released a public call for art, and during that time, they actually received more than 800 submissions, and the final collection features the work of 92 different artists. And, but, but your question was really why. And in one of the podcasts, there's a conversation with Ada Limon the Poet Laureate, about art and how art relates to climate and climate science.

And I really appreciated what she said about art building a sense of community and working against isolation and allowing us to see the many different perspectives around the climate crisis. And so we, at the same time, we can have grief about some things we think will be lost and also feel a lot of agency and motivation about the wonderful advances that have happened recently.

And so art can hold, is a vessel that can hold all of those emotions, and you can see that in these different pieces in the gallery. So I would, if you haven't looked at some of the artwork, it's really, really impressive. And one thing that Ada Limon calls the scientists and, and artists that were part of the National Climate Assessment is noticers.

And that's what you can really see here. The scientists are noticing what's happening in the world in one way, and publishing that and sharing that in one way, and artists are noticing what's happening in the world and publishing and sharing that in another way. And those two elements coming together create a richer understanding that we try to share with the National Climate Assessment.

Another reason for doing this is that in the past, the things that really stick from past National Climate Assessments are the images and the figures. And so you'll, I, I still use some figures from the third National Climate Assessment that I know you, you worked on. And so the art is provides us more images to use as we move forward and broaden our understanding. So it's really an impressive new effort in the fifth national Climate Assessment. 

Sarah LeRoy: Thanks, Emile for describing that, and I, I agree. It's, I was looking at the artwork with a colleague a couple weeks ago when it was first released, and she was asking, well, first she wanted to be able to use the artwork in communicating for the Southwest CASC but as well, she wanted to know if she could buy the artwork. So she was hoping there was a way you could, you know, click on a piece of art and it would take you to the artist's website.

 Or, and you know, somehow to be able to, to purchase the artwork because it's, it's beautiful. I mean, I'd be, I'd be happy to put some of that artwork in my home or share it with, with people. And so maybe that's something to think about for next time if there's a way to, to promote the artists themselves and the work that they do.

So Dave, thinking a little bit more about outreach and obviously this podcast episode is, is one form of outreach. Could you tell us about, you know, the different ways that the assessment is being shared? And then, you know, perhaps some upcoming events. 

So any events that are happening around the Southwest chapter, you know, podcast, conferences, in person meetings, such as that. 

Dave White: Sure. And before I address that, I just want to thank Emile for mentioning the remarks by the poet, Ada Limon because I actually have a note. I pulled up a note on my phone while Emile was speaking. It's from April when we were in Washington, D. C. for part of the All Authors meeting as we were continuing to develop the report. And she spoke and I captured on my phone and I wrote this quote down. "We are noticers. Whether it's science or poetry, we are the ones who notice the world." And I just, that's stuck with me ever since, so I'm glad to hear that that also resonated with others.

So yes, as I mentioned, we're moving into The engagement phase, this is something where it's critically important that we now work with the communities that are the target audiences, as Emile mentioned earlier, we really believe that this report is relevant to the American people, writ large. And so that means we want to get the information, the resources, the the interactive atlas, the, the actual text, the art, all of the products of NCA5 into the hands of those folks who can use it to, whether it's simply to increase their awareness and understanding of the issues. Or it's to actually inform specific decisions like you know, city water services departments or planning departments, et cetera. You know, it's incumbent upon everyone who contributed to this report now to move into that engagement stage. So there are a couple of formal ways that, that people can engage.

One is that there are going to be a series of webinars and these webinars are held by USGCRP and the webinars offer the opportunity for anyone to register and hear about the findings of the chapter from the authors themselves. And each of these one hour events will include time for q and a from the participants. So then the NCA5 Webinar for the Southwest is scheduled for February 23rd, 2024. 11 a. m. to 12 p. m. Pacific Standard Time, and if you'd like to learn more about that, you can just go to globalchange. gov and, and click on the link for engagement and, and navigate to the webinar schedule and there will be an opportunity for you to register for that webinar.

So, in addition to the webinars, we're planning two or three in person workshops and those workshops will be designed specifically with those end users in mind, and so we will be releasing the dates of those workshops soon. They're not available today, but if you go to globalchange. gov, there will be a listing of those workshops.

We are looking at April 2024 and May 2024 for the first two workshops, and we are tentatively scheduled to be in Tempe, Arizona at Arizona state University for the first workshop, and in Los Angeles, California in May for the second workshop. We're designing a third workshop that we hope to be hosting in one of our Rocky Mountain states for the following month.

So stay tuned for more information there and then you know, I would just say the, you know, go on to globalchange. gov, explore the report, bookmark it, come back for information on a regular basis, and, and we'll just continue to have these these opportunities for people to plug in to learn and to use the resources from the report.

Sarah LeRoy: Great, thanks Dave and we'll make sure to include relevant links and things in the podcast notes as well. So Emile, I am guessing this next question is a little funny. So that, you know, when does planning for the next NCA begin? And I say it's kind of funny, probably because you mentioned You know, these take four years, and so I'm guessing it's already started in some manner, but I'll let you chime in here.

Emile Elias: Yeah, it's actually, it is kind of a funny question, only because we're thinking about different types of outreach, probably for the next six months as Dave mentioned, or, or even beyond. And so, we're sharing what we've done, and yes the planning has already started. Dave earlier mentioned Chris Avery.

I had to reach out to him on this question just to check, have you started for the next one? And I was hesitant to even ask because, because this is such a huge endeavor and he and Allison and the technical support unit and everyone who contributed really worked very hard on it, but he said yes. They have already started working on the sixth National Climate Assessment Development process.

So for their internal government work, they've already started that. And then they hope to get started publicly as soon as that's finished. So they have already started work for the next National Climate Assessment, which, which really has to happen to keep us on that four year schedule that's mandated in the Act yeah, you would have to start now to move forward.

So stay tuned. More to come on that. 

Sarah LeRoy: Yeah, it definitely, you know, it's a continual assessment. You know, as soon as one comes out, you got to get started. Yeah and you know, it took, You all two and a half years from when you were selected, but I imagine there's so much work that goes on prior to that and behind the scenes to, to make it happen within this short period of time.

So this next question I'll ask of both of you, but Dave, we'll start with you on this question. What is something in the report that you find encouraging or cause for optimism?

Dave White: Yes, and just to finish on that last point I know I also spoke with Chris recently about this question, and I know that they are moving sort of this continued sustained assessment model is the new approach, you know, that we're not, it's not a single point in time, but we're constantly adding to our knowledge base and understanding and providing new tools and resources to empower people to make informed decisions about climate action. And so I just hope that you know, Chris takes the planned vacation that he deserves so, so much before moving directly into the next cycle. 

I am an optimistic person in general. I think it's part and parcel of being involved in this type of work. I think I'm clear eyed about the risks and about the both current and projected future impacts of climate change, especially conscientious and aware about how climate impacts are affecting people now and how those impacts are affecting particularly front lined and overburdened communities, including Indigenous peoples.

So one thing that gives me hope and optimism from our experience conducting the fifth National Climate Assessment is the huge number and variety of different innovations in climate action that we identify. There are myriad ways in which communities are responding and advancing climate action in ways that reduce the risks, increase resilience, and lead to a more just and equitable society.

We now have three important converging conditions. We have all of the knowledge necessary to inform climate action. We have enabling environment with historic once in a generation funding available from legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, funding that is flowing from federal levels to states and to communities and to non profit organizations, and regulations and funding that is designed to spur and spark private sector action. 

So we have an enabling environment with once in a generation funding. We have public understanding and awareness and knowledge about climate action, and partially as a result of the experience of people, of climate impacts, particularly through extreme events, we are now at a moment in time when there is greater public attention and awareness. So these are the preconditions in which a sort of transformational change can occur. 

So the stage is set and in fact this is the moment where we have everything in place to be able to scale up and to replicate successes all across the country. And if we can do that, then we can be able to reach the targets and the goals that we need to, to you know, reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Climate Accord and to limit the worst, most deleterious consequences of climate change. 

Sarah LeRoy: Thanks, Dave. Emile, same question to you. What do you find encouraging or cause for optimism in the report?

Emile Elias: Yeah, I couldn't agree more with what Dave was mentioning in terms of the stage being set. For me, the actions that are taking place at a variety of scales, It's very encouraging in terms of what many towns and cities and counties and states are working on in the sectors of, you know, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes we're already experiencing in both of those realms.

It's the people that are doing the work that I find very encouraging and, and that give me hope and that's the people on our author team who, who agreed to take this on, the people that contributed across the assessment, and then the people working across the region and across the nation in a variety of capacities. So really feels like like we're really scaling up and and it's happening one person at a time.

And while this feels like a very daunting scary big challenge that we have ahead of us. I also see how people are holding that optimism for themselves and moving forward, but they're not standing still and, and waiting for something to happen. People are doing things. And, and I think that people across the United States taking action is heartening to me, and that really gives me hope, and you can see it in a lot of, a variety of ways from emissions falling since 2007, that's really, really exciting. Costs for wind energy and solar energy dropping over the past decade.

Many city and state level adaptation plans being developed and then also then now being enacted. And so I feel like we're at that time of action and that is very heartening to me.

Sarah LeRoy: Thanks, Emile. I wanted to ask you both now that we're at the end, is there a question that I didn't ask you that you wish I had asked?

Emile Elias: So one thing that, that I would like people to know is if they feel like something important to them is missing in this assessment, as they read it, is that it's a huge assessment, National Climate Assessment, but there are certainly word limits. At the same time, if something's missing, it may likely be because we didn't have relevant recent literature to include that element.

And so if you happen to be a research scientist, then I would encourage you to take a deep dive into that topic and publish. Publish the research within the next four years so that it can be included in the next assessment. 

Sarah LeRoy: Okay, great. Thanks. So last question for you both. What is one thing that you would want people to remember from this podcast?

Dave, I'll start with you. 

Dave White: One thing I'd like people to remember about this is the National Climate Assessment is really a collective effort of more than 700 people. And these people are, are scientists at universities, they're at federal agencies. They are some of whom are working, you know, extra time and extra effort to, to contribute to this report.

They are artists from all over the United States, and they are putting their time and energy and effort into trying to basically make the United States a more resilient, more just, and equitable place. And if we follow the types of actions that are implied, that are informed by this report, then it makes Americans lives better in almost every way.

It increases our economic opportunity, it increases opportunities for the protection of natural spaces that we enjoy for recreation, it increases the, the equity among different groups of people in the United States. So, just the idea that, that climate action it has co benefits across every sector of society, so while some people might think of it as something that has to be a sacrifice, it's really climate action is something that makes almost every aspect of our lives better.

And so that's kind of the, that's the frame of mind that we go into working on this with and I'm hoping it's the frame of mind that people have when they read and take action based on the work.

Sarah LeRoy: Great. Thanks, Dave. Emile, over to you. What's one thing that you would want people to remember? 

Emile Elias: Similar to what I heard Dave say earlier I think it's important that we're clear eyed about the science. That changes are happening now, that the changes are human induced, and at the same time, we know, of course, those changes are scary, right? Just looking at that, it's it's, it's, it's immobilizing to some and most of us, I think. And so, I would like to highlight and put a spotlight on the fact that despite the fact that we're sharing those changes and, and our most recent science on those changes, we are really featuring the actions that people are doing to respond to those changes, and those are individual.

And so, if you're looking at the assessment and it might bring up some fear, I'd like to encourage you to move to the place of action. And those can be small, but they are meaningful. And so I, and, and talking about these changes with the people in your sphere in your life can be really important as you move forward.

So this is a note of encouragement, and there are a lot of places in the National Climate Assessment where you can read about what people are doing, and that can be very encouraging. And so I would like to highlight those, and I would hope that people listening to this would remember those positive actions that they can take.

Sarah LeRoy: Thank you, Emile. It's a perfect note to end this episode on. So I want to thank you, Emile and Dave, for joining me here today to talk about this really preeminent assessment of climate in, in our country. So thank you both.

Emile Elias: Thanks for listening to Come Rain or Shine, podcast of the USDA Southwest Climate Hub 

Sarah LeRoy: and the USGS Southwest CASC. If you liked this podcast, don't forget to rate or review it and subscribe for more great episodes. A special thanks to our production crew, Skye Aney, and Reanna Burnett. If you want more information, have any questions for the speakers, or would like to offer feedback, please reach out to us via our website.